5 Ways Trump Could Win In 2020 (And 5 Ways He Could Lose)

The 2020 election is a long, agonizing, tumultuous 20 months away. A lot can change in that time. A whole lot. Given the intensely polarized state of US politics, it’s hard to imagine slogging through these 20 months without something (perhaps multiple things) happening in the political landscape.

That said, Donald Trump is in a good position to win re-election in 2020 assuming the status quo remains… well, the status quo. With that in mind, and with the acknowledgment that those 20 months ahead offer near endless possibilities for scandal, unrest, mean tweets, and more; here are a few all-too premature predictions for how Donald Trump can win re-election in 2020…. and how the opposite could happen.

1. It’s The Economy, Stupid.

Trump Can Win:

Jobs are up. Unemployment’s down. The market is good, interest rates are low, or at least stable for now. Consumer confidence is good. People generally don’t like to change things when things are going well, especially when it comes to their money.

Trump Can Lose:

If you ask me, (and you didn’t), the economy isn’t strong, the recession never ended, and all we did was inflate the bubble and buy some more time. I might be 100% wrong about this, but economists who got 2008 right are already warning about another dip on the horizon. For whatever reason that might happen, the only thing for certain is this: eventually we’ll have another recession.

If this happens between now and the election, Democrats will smartly pounce on it. They’ll cite Trump’s regulation cutting ways, tax cuts, and spending. Whether they’re right or not is not important as far as the election is concerned. The messaging will go the Democrat’s way and people will want a change.

2. Russia, Russia, Russia

Trump Can Win:

The full Mueller Report is still unknown but the core message is this: no collusion. There’s no doubt this was a big blow to the Democrat’s talking points for 2020. Whomever the candidate winds up being, if they go full-blown Russia conspiracy theory during the campaign, it will not end well for them.

Trump Can Lose:

The full Mueller Report is still unknown but here’s the thing: Even if whatever is in there isn’t a Tom Clancy-esque espionage story, it’s still not likely to be flattering for Trump or his people. Donald Trump is/was a real estate developer in New York City for the better part of the last half-century. There’s not a doubt in my mind he hasn’t broken a few laws in that time. Does Mueller know about them? And are sordid details of past transgressions in his report? That’s the question.

3. Trump Gets Indicted

Trump Can Win:

There is an ongoing investigation in the Southern District of New York that is likely going to wind up with Trump being indicted. The NYC AG has already said that’s her plan. The question is: for what? If Trump failed to pay property tax in 1972 or had some unpaid parking tickets in 1984, he won’t be hurt by it. Most people will roll their eyes and see it as a politically-motivated attack.

Trump Can Lose:

The New York City Attorney’s General is not likely to indict Trump for unpaid parking tickets. The question is: what will she indict him for? There’s not a doubt in my mind an indictment is coming. Whether or not a sitting President can be indicted is a matter of some debate with most (emphasis on most) good faith legal minds agreeing that no, they probably can’t be. The correct process would be impeachment, removal from office, then indictment as a private citizen.

If the charges are serious enough, Democrats will lead a charge to impeach to follow that exact process. Why?  Because the indictment itself will be challenged in court and probably kicked all the way to the Supreme Court to settle the “can a president be indicted” question once and for all.

The answer will likely be no and Trump will probably not be impeached and removed from office either. But that’s not the point or the plan. Trump doesn’t have to be arrested, indicted, impeached, or convicted. He just has to have that process hanging over him to be enough to sway voters away from voting for him.

Look for this to start happening in early 2020 (if not sooner). Just enough time for the entire sordid process to drag on through the summer leading up to the election. The Dem nominee (whomever it is) looks instantly better in the public eye just by comparison.

4. The Democrats Run…..

Trump Can Win:

Anyone not named Joe Biden.

Kamala Harris is a former prosecutor and AG who’s part of “the system” and will not be embraced by the progressive wing of the Democratic base which runs more anarchistic. Elizabeth Warren lied about being Native American, Cory Booker is a media hog who doesn’t know anything, Beto is a trust-fund kid who spends his time standing on counter-tops when he’s not getting his photo taken. All the other nominees are unknown nobodies who won’t win the nomination so they’re not worth speaking about. The most normal among them? Tulsi Gabbard. But she’s anti-war so they’ve already decided she won’t be the nominee.

What about Bernie? He’s a crazy old kook with a lot of videos of him talking about rape and breadlines while sitting naked in the Soviet Union in the ’70s. Just Google it. Bernie won’t win, the DNC doesn’t want him to win, and he’s not nearly as popular among Independents, Centrists, and Moderates as people would have you think he is. There’s also a file cabinet full of opposition research on him that Hillary Clinton never used. If he’s the nominee, it’ll be fun.

Trump Can Lose:

I have said from the beginning that if Biden runs, Trump loses. I stand by that. Like him or not, Biden is a calming presence. He served two terms as the Vice President for an extremely popular war criminal President. He is well-liked and well-respected among coastal elites and blue-collar workers alike. However, he’s got a little rough and tumble in him and he won’t be afraid or intimidated by Trump’s jabs. He’s basically Trump if Trump were more measured, polished, and politically astute.

Yes, there’s “creepy” videos of him out there which may cause some #metoo moments but these have been out there for years. It’s also hard to imagine the media (in full opposition mode) really pushing or challenging him on it. If Biden is the nominee, Trump is in trouble.

5. Socialism – How Does It Work?

Trump Can Win:

The so-called “new” right-wing of the political ideology is not the alt-right. With increasing political divisiveness and fractures in the cultural landscape, the new right has a lot of unlikely bedfellows. Conservatives, Republicans, Moderates, Centrists, Libertarians, Conservative Democrats, etc are all at times skeptical, wary, disgusted, disgruntled, or otherwise bothered with the rise of socialist leaning politicians like Bernie Sanders or Alexandria Occasional Cortex.

Whatever “real socialism” is doesn’t matter. There is a growing group of authoritarian Democrats who want more state power. More government control. Higher taxes. If the nominee, whomever it is, doubles down on this in an effort to pander to the more extreme (and smaller) wing of the Democratic base, they’ll lose.

Trump Can Lose:

As a Republican, Trump has spent like a drunken Democrat sailor. He is, and remains, a big city Democrat in Republican clothing at least when it comes to Government spending and driving up the debt. He can’t, won’t, and shouldn’t run on his “fiscally conservative” record because it doesn’t exist.

A savvy Dem can make the (tortured math) argument that Trump wants billions for a wall, a space force, and military parades but a few bucks to save healthcare is too much. An Elizabeth Warren type will get up there and scream about millions of people dying in the streets (which isn’t true) or about how climate change is racist (it’s not) and killing Americans by the thousands (it isn’t). A Joe Biden, on the other hand, will say “hey, we need to help our neighbor with a hand up because it’s the right thing to do.” That’ll play well.

Who Wins?

It’s far too early to tell. With 2020 still 20 months away, it’s anybody’s game. There are many ways in which Trump can win. There are also a few ways he can lose. Don’t think for a moment that the Dems don’t have some tricks up their sleeves, however. Starting with Trump being indicted in the Southern District of New York sometime in early 2020. Mark that down and remember you heard it here first.

However, the one good thing is that the Democrats have an entire primary season to get through. There are approximately 4,395 Democrats running for the nomination. Once the debates roll around, the President will be watching them, live tweeting them, and bestowing nicknames upon the candidates from the Lincoln Bedroom.

Strap in, it’s going to get bumpy.

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